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The Washington Post stated that Carnegie Endowment to own Worldwide Tranquility’s Michael Kofman assessed your All of us extra support package do ensure it is Ukrainian forces to help you “buy time” but one to Ukraine also needs to boost the fresh ”architectural state” linked to its minimal manpower info. A great Russian Storm-Z teacher listed one Russian bodies need look at the contradictory hobbies of your own Russian military command, individuals sets of army group inside the Ukraine, and Russian area whenever deciding whether or not to conduct other trend away from mobilization or otherwise not. The fresh teacher advertised one to Russian bodies has turned to help you hiring volunteer military personnel because they’re alarmed one to various other mobilization wave manage likely ignite personal tension within the Russia and you may lead to various other bulk exodus regarding the nation.
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Russia’s current growth up to Bakhmut used weeks of people wave symptoms to help you safer territorial progress up to Bakhmut because of the brute push at the tremendous human will cost you. Russia’s prior to get out of Severodonetsk and you will Lysychansk during the summer 2022 and did not use mutual arms but rather relied on large-size going weaponry barrages in order to methodically damage Ukrainian ranks. Russian forces are having increasing weapons ammunition shortages who prevent them away from repeated these types of ideas.10 It is unlikely, moreover, the old-fashioned Russian military might possibly be prepared to make the types of horrifying losings the human being wave strategy has inflicted for the Wagner’s convicts. Putin have planned the new target for the government assembly inside the the newest assumption one to Russian forces perform secure at least a good tactical achievement on the Bakhmut urban area, even though Russian pushes have only achieved regarding the five-hundred square kilometers inside the the newest Bakhmut area within the extreme campaigning as the July 4, 2022, if you are distress fancy casualties. Putin you are going to announce the beginning of a subsequent mobilization wave, even when really indicators and examination recommend that he will perhaps not create therefore now.11 ISW, as well as British Shelter Minister Ben Wallace, analyzes that the Russian armed forces has enough time a significant number of the available formations to intensified unpleasant surgery inside Ukraine and that not enough higher uncommitted supplies may stop Putin out of proclaiming the start of an entirely the fresh highest-size offensive work.12 Putin will likely consistently deliver insignificant public addresses as the lack of Russian armed forces success inside Ukraine deprives your of the opportunity to allege or convincingly hope an earn of every significance.
The fresh Wagner-associated Kiber Side Z direction might have been spearheading conversations regarding the combat inside Prigozhin-possessed pubs to possess weeks, and is also you can it large-profile assassination tend to deter folks from attending comparable incidents. ISW didn’t tend to be events where indirect flame might have inadvertently slain spiritual frontrunners otherwise lost churches.3 (That it report specifically doesn’t come with the 494 religious structures you to the new Russian armed forces reportedly completely missing, broken, or looted, with respect to the separate Kyiv-founded Institute to possess Spiritual Freedom by February 2023 since the ISW don’t determine intentionality in all those people cases, such as.)4 The new situations one of them study are pulled away from records of Russian forces – always infantry, shelter group, otherwise profession officials – purposely coercing spiritual teams. It declaration and excludes of several instances of Russian religious repressions inside portion Russian forces have occupied from springtime 2014 in order to March 24, 2022, to a target more recent persecutions in the newly-occupied portion. Since the Russia’s complete-size invasion out of Ukraine inside the February 2022 Russian soldiers or work regulators features apparently the amount of time no less than 76 serves out of religious persecution within the Ukraine.1 Russian authorities provides finalized, nationalized, otherwise forcefully translated at the very least twenty six places of worship to the Kremlin-controlled Russian Orthodox Church of your Moscow Patriarchate, murdered or caught at the least 29 clergy otherwise spiritual leaders, and looted, desecrated, otherwise purposely destroyed at the very least 13 church buildings inside the occupied Ukraine.2 This type of cases of religious repression are not almost certainly isolated incidents however, alternatively part of a planned promotion to systematically eliminate “undesirable” spiritual communities in the Ukraine and you may provide the brand new Moscow Patriarchate. Wagner Classification financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is actually apparently continue his political aspirations from the looking to obtain control over a Russian governmental group.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin provided a demonstration for the Summer twenty six looking to to help you convince as much Wagner fighters and you will frontrunners to in order to get in on the Russian military and you may continue attacking facing Ukraine also to cause anyone most dedicated to help you Wagner Category financier Yevgeny Prigozhin to help you self-select. Putin continued in order to denounce the newest organizers of the armed rebellion while the traitors.1 Putin thanked Russian area and the Russian defense forces for safeguarding Russia’s sovereignty and you may indicated appreciation in order to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for brokering dealings on the perpetrators of your rebellion. Putin is actually rhetorically splitting up Prigozhin regarding the Wagner PMC and that is deliberately starving Prigozhin of your own identity out of Wagner financier to weaken their character in the Wagner PMC. The new Kremlin launched an ongoing domestic information campaign within the Russia to forgive Wagner competitors and you can commanders as a way to entice Wagner personnel to sign associations for the Russian Ministry away from Security (MoD).step 3 The new intentional effort to separate your lives Prigozhin from the Wagner Group is probably intended to lay educational conditions therefore the Kremlin is also accuse Prigozhin of corruption or conspiring with Ukraine or perhaps the West and you can alienate Prigozhin of Wagner team who the brand new Kremlin seeks to retain to battle inside Ukraine within the regular Russian army.cuatro Prigozhin had centered his own brand to your criticizing the new Russian military command and you will bureaucrats to have corruption and ties to West countries, and you may Putin could be attempting to shatter Prigozhin’s populist focus by the accusing him of the identical sins. Went on reporting about the deal mediated by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to get rid of the new Wagner Classification’s equipped rebellion shows that inside functions can still become negotiating the newest details of the fresh contract. Separate Belarusian keeping track of classification The new Hajun Venture quoted airline recording research to the June 27 indicating you to Wagner Class financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s sprinkle took off regarding the Machulishchy airfield inside the Belarus to your Russia, travelled to Moscow, after which instantly became popular for St. Petersburg.1 Previous Russian officer and you may preferred critical milblogger Igor Girkin stated one Prigozhin gone back to Russia to negotiate having unspecified Russian officials and the new Wagner Leader’s Council.2 ISW usually do not independently prove in the event the Prigozhin did in fact go back to Russia, nor the main points of your supposed visit, but Prigozhin might have came back briefly to work out subsequent information of one’s offer negotiated by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko.
The brand new invocation from a good ceasefire on the decidedly religious factor lined up that have East Orthodox Christian lifestyle try a subcomponent associated with the suggestions operation. Is to Russia give and you may Ukraine refuse an excellent ceasefire more Orthodox Easter the brand new Kremlin doesn’t and therefore features shown any better https://happy-gambler.com/pantasia-casino/ dedication to the newest security out of Christianity or Christian thinking nor shown you to Kyiv denies those individuals thinking. Specific Russian professionals regarding the advice area also have misunderstood Prigozhin’s essay, then launching fissures anywhere between specific Russian milbloggers. Pro-Kremlin development aggregator Readovka listed on April 15 one specific unspecified Russian-words Telegram streams – for example specific West mass media – simply frequent Prigozhin’s strawman argument about the seduction of settling for transactions rather than “discovering any longer” to your Prigozhin’s call for a long struggle.4 Readovka supported Prigozhin’s real dispute that the “embarrassing facts” is that Russia have to still fight, concurring you to negotiations to get rid of the war create “create more damage than just a.”5 Former Russian administrator and you can ardent nationalist Igor Girkin – an enemy from Prigozhin – leaned to your misinterpretation away from Prigozhin’s essay (perhaps on purpose) as an element of the ongoing posting blogs feud. Girkin sarcastically requested, “Perform I am aware precisely the Black Clown Prigozhin needed the fresh Russian Federation to reject 50 percent of the newest Donetsk Somebody’s Republic and you may a 3rd from Zaporizhia Oblast…?
The brand new Russian Ministry out of Defense (MoD) printed video footage for the February twenty six claiming to exhibit Gerasimov going to a good 58th CAA command post inside Ukraine, hearing records regarding the functional condition, and you can to present medals to help you Russian servicemen.12 The brand new 58th CAA is now searching for offensive surgery inside the west Zaporizhia Oblast, and so the MoD videos implies that Gerasimov went along to a demand blog post someplace in the new Zaporizhia Oblast assistance. The fresh Russian MoD wrote video footage proving Gerasimov awarding Russian troops once the newest get from Avdiivka for the March 21, that is somewhat the first social portrayal out of Gerasimov providing his command responsibilities because the December 31.13 Gerasimov discharged former 58th CAA Chief Major-general Ivan Popov inside July 2023 pursuing the reports you to definitely Popov bypassed Gerasimov’s demand and myself appealed on the Kremlin so you can complain from the Gerasimov’s refusal to switch 58th CAA soldiers away from the frontline to possess others and you will reconstitution as they was shielding up against Ukraine’s june 2023 counteroffensive force inside the Zaporizhia Oblast.14 Gerasimov likely went to the newest 58th CAA command article to some extent to rebuild their connection with 58th CAA all the way down-peak commanders and you may servicemembers following Popov’s firing and also the ailment they made of Gerasimov.15 Gerasimov and appears to be engaged in a promotion to present himself since the a and you can interested captain of the General Team, along with his recent societal looks to the regions of leading where Russian forces are making tactical growth are likely element of so it energy to bolster their personal photo. Russian President Vladimir Putin put his March 29 address for the Government Construction to try and convince the new Russian public one his 2nd name as the president might possibly be laid out because of the Russian army achievements within the Ukraine although not at the expense of stagnating otherwise decreased social and you may economic passions. Putin stated that Russian handle capabilities have raised “a couple of times more” which Russian forces “firmly hold the effort, with confidence get better in a number of operational components” and you will take “far more area.”11 Putin’s characterization of Russian offensive operations within the Ukraine try somewhat much more pretty sure than just their December 14, 2023, Head Line declaration one to Russian pushes had been inside the “the newest active phase out of step.”12 Putin’s willingness so you can in public places show his visible trust within the Russian unpleasant functions likely is due to Russia’s recent seizure of Avdiivka and you will expanded United states discussions from the armed forces support in order to Ukraine.
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- Lavrov’s commentary advise that the fresh Kremlin might use the tip away from a constantly moving on demilitarized “sanitary zone” to validate Russian offending procedures then and further on the Ukraine.
- Russia is also apparently generate approximately 42 Iskander missiles and you will four Kinzhal missiles 30 days, although it try unclear exactly how many S-300/S-eight hundred missiles Russia can make.13 Russia‘s shelter industrial base (DIB) almost certainly don’t produce ballistic missiles during the scale necessary for a persistent hit promotion in the Ukraine you to definitely relies on frequently spending a large volume of ballistic missiles, and Russia probably must source ballistic missiles away from abroad if it wants to look after higher-scale missile strikes against Ukraine.
- The fresh Russian County Duma will even consider amendments to the Russian legislation to your veterans’ rights to provide experienced status so you can individual armed forces companies (PMCs) and you can volunteers.4 Prigozhin was routinely advocating to have Wagner personnel to be approved because the participants of one’s ”special military procedure” within the Ukraine, plus the use for the costs perform signify one to Prigozhin’s reputation from the Kremlin internal network provides improved.
- ISW assessed may 17 you to definitely Russian strongmen (siloviki) are attempting to discredit Prigozhin by accusing him away from trying to explore winnings inside Bakhmut to help expand their political aspirations inside the Russia.22 Morozov’s ailment is actually notable as it may imply a change in the ultranationalists’ effect from Prigozhin.
- Russian milbloggers advertised you to Ukrainian pushes introduced anywhere between a dozen and you can 15 ATACMS missiles centering on Simferopol plus the Dzhankoi airfield however, stated one Russian air defenses downed all of the missiles.12 The brand new Russian Ministry away from Shelter (MoD) stated one to Russian heavens defenses lost half a dozen ATACMS missiles inside the an unspecified area, likely dealing with occupied Crimea.13 Russia opposition socket Astra reported that Ukrainian missiles, allegedly ATACMS missiles, strike establishment of the Russian 31st Sky Protection Section inside the Chornomorsk and you will Saky raions and the Dzhankoi airfield, causing a fire and you can hurting several Russian servicemen.14 Ukrainian officials have not responded to the fresh said struck, and you may ISW do not independently make sure Russian states regarding the strike.
- Akhmat forces has deployed during the Ukraine, primarily from the Bilohorivka area inside the Luhansk Oblast plus strewn parts from the southern, over the course of 2023 but i have perhaps not been majorly committed to definitive offensive surgery.6 The new Chechen pushes that would deploy to help you Bakhmut are therefore most likely considerably fresh and less degraded than Wagner forces with remained to your front side to have weeks.
Republic away from Tatarstan Direct Rustam Minnikhanov informed one to Russian businesses and you can local bodies need to guard themselves against Ukrainian drone affects and never rely on Russian heavens protections pursuing the April dos Ukrainian influences on the Russian army production and you will oils refinery infrastructure inside the Tatarstan. Minnikhanov stated on the April 3 one to “there is no need to attend to possess Russian missile protection so you can work…we have to try for our own, the firm, all the town, all of the area.”20 Minnikhanov stated that Russians will be “awaken” and you can know “nobody have a tendency to cover you except on your own.” Russian military provide has just advised Russian county outlet Izvestia that Russian armed forces are building cellular flames organizations to battle Ukrainian drones, proving you to definitely Russia may be not able to deploy conventional air security systems to defend each one of Russia’s critical organization.21 ISW examined one Ukraine’s April 2 impacts to the targets inside Tatarstan almost certainly represent a good high inflection inside Ukraine’s power to conduct a lot of time-diversity strikes much on the butt Russia’s portion.22 Minnikhanov’s report is likely an expression away from increased Russian matter following the the new April 2 strikes which can be a definite bill and you may admonition of your Russian Ministry of Protection’s (MoD) incapacity to guard Russian towns and you may important system out of Ukrainian drone impacts. Russian risks so you can Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka are extremely operationally significant because the these types of “fortress” towns let mode the new spine of your own Ukrainian shelter in the Donetsk Oblast as well as eastern Ukraine as a whole. The new isolation of Kostyantynivka or even the outright seizure of your settlement would likely significantly wear-out Ukraine’s ability to secure the frontline next southern inside the Donetsk Oblast because it do sever a primary surface line of interaction collectively the newest H-20 (Kostyantynivka-Donetsk Urban area) street and require Ukrainian forces to help you going a life threatening portion of manpower and you can materiel on the defense of one’s left “fortress” belt and you may relatively quicker fortified areas of central and you may west Donetsk Oblast. Russian enhances thanks to Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka and subsequent west to the Donetsk Oblast may likely establish Russian pushes with deeper possibilities to collapse the brand new Ukrainian frontline within the Donetsk Oblast and maybe fix apparently quick maneuver to your battleground looking for taking over all of Donetsk Oblast.
Russian Investigative Panel Direct Alexander Bastrykin claimed you to definitely Russia has no financial reason so you can import international work, a primary contradiction away from Russian Chairman Vladimir Putin’s recent work so you can justify Russia’s most recent migration laws and regulations to their xenophobic super-nationalist constituency. Bastrykin advertised during the a presentation in the St. Petersburg Worldwide Courtroom Community forum for the April ten you to Russia does not have any financial reasoning to help you transfer migrant experts, for example professionals from Central Parts of asia.38 Bastrykin reported that an enthusiastic Uzbek regulators formal after requested Bastrykin why Russia consumes so many migrants and allows migrants to use to possess Russian citizenship, such as young migrants who Bastrykin insinuated had been hazardous. Bastrykin claimed that there surely is “not a way” Russia is defeat the newest claimed trend out of increased migrant crime in the Russia and you may claimed you to migrants in the Russia are unwilling to absorb on the Russian culture and you will neighborhood. The fresh threat of a good Russian offending procedure targeting Kharkiv or Sumy town is apparently pushing the new Ukrainian armed forces in order to redistribute the limited manpower and you can materiel to the structure out of defensive fortifications within the those people parts and a working Russian procedure to grab such towns perform simply next aggravate so it active.
Just click here to read through concerning the methodology at the rear of ISW and you may CTP’s mapping from that it dispute.
The brand new Russian MoD provided an additional update about the Summer step one Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast edging raid, largely fixating to the timeliness and you will range of the Russian impulse to the raid.step one The new MoD advertised you to definitely a lot more Russian Western Armed forces Area (WMD) factors strengthened the newest edging town inside one hour of your own begin of the raid and you can presented hefty heavens, weaponry, and flamethrower impacts up against the raiding devices as well as their supplies. The brand new MoD claimed that over 135 somebody and you will thirty five car inside the full conducted the newest raids which various Russian defensive efforts – along with short hands fire and you will mines – repelled the brand new raids. The brand new MoD afterwards notable the fresh chief away from an enthusiastic unspecified motorized rifle battalion, Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Nikitin, to have best the new defensive work, gonna preempt attempts to characteristic the brand new “victory” attained by Belgorod border security to your Russian Colonel Standard Alexander Lapin as the advice area did within the Can get 23 raid.dos The fresh Russian MoD’s fixation to your portraying Russian forces and the Russian military demand since the in a position to defenders away from Russia almost certainly reflects internal and you will wide guidance area stress along the future Ukrainian counteroffensive along with any reverberating informational affects out of any downfalls to protect against Ukrainian counterattacks. Ukrainian authorities haven’t publicly said one sudden buildup out of Russian pushes from the Kupyansk assistance demonstrating one a huge-size offending to progress for the Oskil River are forthcoming. An excellent Russian milblogger argued you to definitely Russian pushes must boost thought and you may control during the tactical and working accounts to ensure that Russian offending surgery is also use of your newest positional warfare in the Ukraine.10 The new milblogger reported that Russian pushes ought not to concentrate the fresh attacking structures – specifically physical products – in the intended instructions away from assault as a result of the risk of Ukrainian affects facing high push accumulations. The new milblogger stated that Russian pushes need precede people development with preparatory weapons flame facing both the objective you to Russian forces try assaulting and you can Ukrainian weapons capturing ranks inside the a wide town in this set of the goal.
An unnamed elderly All of us authorities formal advised the fresh NYT one to Russia is probably unfreezing Northern Korean possessions and permitting North Korea evade international sanctions in exchange for North Korean guns transmits so you can Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin confronted with Northern Korean dictator Kim Jong United nations in the Russia inside September 2023 and exposed to North Korean International Minister Choe Son-hui in the January 2024.21 Ukrainian Fundamental Army Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major-general Vadym Skibitskyi stated that North Korea brought 1 million series of weapons ammunition so you can Russia from September in order to November 2023, and Us officials have stated that Russian forces features revealed from the minimum nine Northern Korean ballistic missiles facing Ukraine.22 ISW will continue to assess you to definitely Russia could be offered to economic, scientific, and protection collaboration having North Korea in exchange for the new supply of artillery ammo and you may ballistic missiles to use inside the Ukraine.23 North Korea would benefit from it venture by gathering technology research from the guns’ performance in the Ukraine to utilize in the North Korean research and invention on top of other things. Russian bodies is generally promoting enough the newest pushes so you can sustain loss created by the modern speed of their unpleasant procedures inside the Ukraine as a result of 2025. Russian source said your Russian armed forces theoretically removed Russian Black colored Ocean Collection (BSF) Chief Admiral Viktor Sokolov and you can changed your to your BSF’s Captain away from Staff Vice Admiral Sergei Pinchuk.38 An excellent Ukrainian strike on the Russian BSF head office within the occupied Sevastopol, Crimea inside September 2023 most likely killed Sokolov.39 A Russian milblogger advertised one to Sokolov, who have been BSF commander because the September 2022, banned the brand new BSF out of establishing non-fundamental gizmos to the boats for finding coastal drones and other technologically advanced devices and you will advertised that BSF lost regarding the 20 precent of the electricity less than Sokolov’s order.40 Ukrainian Navy Representative Head 3rd Review Dmytro Pletenchuk reported that the newest BSF got nearly 80 bits of naval handle gizmos at the beginning of the Russia’s complete-size invasion within the February 2022 at which 29 to thirty five was “heavily equipped.”41 Pletenchuk stated that Ukrainian pushes features “destroyed” twenty-six naval treat bits as of March 15, 2023, and you can “certainly busted” other 15. Pletenchuk along with stated that the new Russian coast-guard (under to the Russian Government Shelter Provider FSB) provides around 20 some boats.
Russian forces you may seek to explore Lyman as the a good introducing area for a definitive offensive to safer Donbas from the conducting an unpleasant of Lyman together which have a force on the Bakhmut otherwise of Bakhmut on the Slovyansk if the Russians achieve trapping Bakhmut. The newest Russians get suppose that they’re able to push off their newest positions to the newest Donetsk Oblast border together multiple independent outlines out of get better, although it try impractical which they won’t admit the extreme improbability from achievements this kind of a-try. The fresh Russians more likely intend to follow numerous levels out of offending functions culminating having protecting the newest borders of Donetsk and you will Luhansk oblasts. These types of levels may likely need between half a dozen to 12 months from Russian campaigning, when they you can whatsoever, extrapolating from past Russian functional models and you will and when highest quantities of Russian combat electricity and you can features than simply ISW have noticed because the start of the battle. The newest Russian nationalist advice area are continued to share with you care more Russia’s failure to help you sustain a rapid and multiple-pronged decisive offensive procedure for the a due date. You to definitely well-known milblogger warned you to definitely Russian pushes shouldn’t get into the fresh pitfall from wanting to initiate multiple offensive functions such as they did inside spring season 2022 but rather work on steady advances you to definitely perform create highest casualties certainly one of Ukrainian forces.
- The concept of Russia’s «historic frontiers» enables you to validate violence up against almost any of Russia’s neighbors, in addition to Moldova as well as the Main Asian says who do perhaps not share a boundary with Russia, because the all of them have territory one to belonged during the one-point to both the fresh Soviet Union or the Russian Empire otherwise each other.
- In case your Gagauzian regulators might be able to for some reason enact the brand new contract, however, the newest Kremlin can use the new payments in order to financially take a segment out of Gagauzia doing the new Kremlin’s bidding, otherwise you’ll stop the new money in the a future duration of Moscow’s choosing to foment an emergency.
- Putin’s said aim of driving leading line to ensure Russia’s stated and you can actual territories is outside Ukrainian shooting assortment are an obscure goal that’s in fact hard provided there is certainly another Ukraine with any power to struggle.
- Lavrov’s equations of your Western that have Nazi Germany and its particular assistance for Ukraine that have an attempt in order to exterminate the new Russian individuals are ludicrous and you will likely aimed at a domestic Russian audience.
Zvinchuk offered an interview to help you Russian-code diaspora-centered outlet RTVi on 18 one concerned about the brand new replacement for away from previous Russian Protection Minister and you will most recent Russian Defense Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu and you will corruption regarding the Russian MoD.43 Zvinchuk complained about the Russian MoD’s bureaucratic things and stated one recently designated Russian Security Minister Andrei Belousov will have to begin and then make «self-confident change» on the MoD within this 3 months ahead of someone «begin asking issues.» Zvinchuk claimed one Belousov will change previous Russian Deputy Defense Minister Ruslan Tsalikov, which apparently filed their resignation so you can Shoigu a week ahead of Shoigu’s substitute for, as the Tsalikov is actually Shoigu’s «right-hand kid,» perhaps not Belousov’s. Zvinchuk as well as claimed you to Russian Deputy Security Minister Tatyana Shevtsova and you may Russian Deputy Shelter Minister and you can Lead of your own Russian MoD’s Fundamental Military-Governmental Directorate Viktor Goremykin will stay in their ranks. A Russian insider origin, who’s in past times precisely claimed to your Russian armed forces demand changes, stated on may 14 one Shevtsova will likely resign, yet not.44 Zvinchuk claimed he features advice one Russian Deputy Defense Minister Colonel Standard Yunus-Bek Yevkurov leaves their blog post in order to lead the fresh Russian MoD’s Africa Corps and therefore Lead of your Russian MoD’s Chief Directorate away from Military Police General Sergei Kuralenko often exchange Yevkurov.
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